The head of the Tax and Customs Studies Center at Brazil’s Federal Revenue, Claudemir Malaquias, announced that the impact of increased taxes on fintechs, betting companies, and on Juros sobre Capital Próprio (JCP) will be thoroughly evaluated starting in 2026. This assessment comes after recent legislative changes designed to boost government revenue.
Malaquias detailed that the revenue increase observed this year in the financial sector is primarily linked to PIS/Cofins, which is levied on the gross spread. Consequently, as the economy grows, so does the collection of these taxes, directly correlating with economic activity.
He also reminded that newly implemented contributions have a “noventena” period, meaning their full effect will only be felt 90 days after their inception. This applies to fintechs, whose contribution rate is rising from 9% to 15%, and to betting companies, where the tax on Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) is increasing from 12% to 18%. The Federal Revenue’s evaluation of the revenue impact from these changes will commence at the beginning of next year, as stated by Malaquias.
New Tax Hikes Approved by Congress
The legislative changes, including the increased tax rates for fintechs, betting firms, and JCP, were incorporated into a bill that reduces tax benefits by 10%. This bill was recently approved by Congress.
The project outlines a gradual increase in the Social Contribution on Net Profit (CSLL) for fintechs. The rate will climb from the current 9% to 12% until the end of 2027, before settling at 15% from 2028 onwards. For context, banks currently pay 20% CSLL, but non-bank financial institutions often face a higher effective tax due to their greater profitability.
Betting Sector and JCP Face Increased Taxation
For betting companies, the tax rate, currently at 12%, will see an increase to 15% in a phased manner across 2026, 2027, and 2028. This adjustment is achieved by reducing the percentage retained by betting companies for operational costs, which currently stands at 88%, with 12% remitted to the government.
Furthermore, the Income Tax (IR) on the distribution of JCP to shareholders will rise from 15% to 17.5%. These legislative changes are expected to significantly impact government revenue.
Projected Revenue Gains for 2026
Estimates from the Chamber of Deputies suggest that the reduction in tax benefits will generate R$ 17.5 billion. The increased taxation on fintechs is projected to bring in R$ 1.6 billion, while the higher levy on JCP is expected to yield an additional R$ 2.5 billion. The tax hike on betting companies is anticipated to add R$ 850 million to government coffers.
In total, government technicians from the Chamber estimate that these measures will result in an additional R$ 22.45 billion in revenue for 2026. The Federal Revenue’s projections for the upcoming year will incorporate these new revenue streams and macroeconomic factors.
Federal Revenue’s Forward-Looking Approach
Malaquias expressed confidence in the accuracy of future revenue projections, citing a strong correlation between economic activity and tax collection. The team responsible for these forecasts is reportedly comfortable with the predictability of this relationship.
He further indicated that a comprehensive reassessment of all projected revenues for 2026 will occur with the first budget and financial execution decree of the year. This reassessment will incorporate macroeconomic parameters, industry perceptions, and consumer sentiment, all of which will be reflected in the official projections early next year.
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