Bradesco CEO Marcelo Noronha expressed a nuanced outlook for 2026, indicating a slightly more optimistic stance compared to previous projections. His positive sentiment is primarily anchored in the country’s controlled unemployment rates and a projected expansion in credit growth, signaling potential economic resilience.
Noronha highlighted the current unemployment rate, which hovers around 6%, as a key indicator of economic health. He also pointed to a positive trend in wage growth this year, contributing to his cautiously optimistic view for the upcoming year.
This optimism extends to the credit market, where Noronha anticipates a more robust expansion than initially forecast. He estimates credit growth to be closer to 7% in 2026, a notable increase from previous expectations of around 6%. Bradesco itself is projecting a 4% to 8% expansion in its credit portfolio for 2025.
However, the Bradesco CEO also acknowledged the inherent uncertainties associated with 2026 being an election year, emphasizing the need for close monitoring of political developments. He reiterated that fiscal policy remains the paramount challenge for Brazil, stressing the unacceptability of a continuously rising debt-to-GDP ratio.
Credit Growth Forecasted to Accelerate
During an event with journalists in São Paulo, Marcelo Noronha elaborated on his economic forecasts. He projected that credit expansion in Brazil could reach approximately 7% in 2026. This revised estimate surpasses earlier predictions, which were closer to 6%.
Noronha’s assessment suggests a strengthening economic environment that could support increased lending activities. For the current year, 2025, Bradesco has set its guidance for credit portfolio expansion between 4% and 8%. The bank has not yet released its official guidance for 2026.
Fiscal Policy Remains a Key Concern
While expressing optimism about employment and credit, Noronha did not shy away from identifying fiscal policy as a significant hurdle for Brazil’s economic progress. He stressed the importance of fiscal responsibility and expressed concern over a potential upward trend in the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio.
The CEO underscored that a sustainable fiscal framework is crucial for long-term economic stability and growth. He indicated that managing public finances effectively will be a critical factor in navigating the economic landscape, especially in an election year.
Banco Master Liquidation and FGC Implications Avoided
Despite repeated inquiries from journalists, Noronha deliberately refrained from commenting on the recent liquidation of Banco Master and its potential implications for the Credit Guarantee Fund (FGC). Bradesco is a significant contributor to the FGC.
When pressed for details, Noronha stated, “It is something we will have to see when there is some formalization.” He acknowledged that changes might be necessary to prevent future issues with the fund, but emphasized that any regulatory adjustments are the purview of the relevant authorities.
The Banco Master situation has raised questions about the FGC’s capacity and operational rules, particularly after its aggressive growth strategy relying on high-yield debt instruments marketed as FGC-covered. The FGC had estimated R$ 41 billion in guarantees to be paid to Banco Master creditors, with its net liquid assets standing at R$ 122 billion as of September, out of a total patrimony of R$ 160 billion.
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