As 2025 draws to a close, the economic landscape in Brazil presents a complex scenario. Global interest rates are reversing their upward trend, the Selic rate has returned to 15%, and fiscal concerns have re-emerged as a central point of discussion. Adding to this, the inescapable reality of an election in 2026 looms, potentially intensifying the atmosphere of uncertainty.
While the macroeconomic environment has seen murkier days, a crucial question remains: how much room will the Central Bank have to reduce the Selic rate next year? This uncertainty is a key concern for investors looking to navigate the coming year.
These pressing questions will be at the heart of the macroeconomics panel at “Onde Investir 2026,” a free online event organized by InfoMoney in partnership with XP, scheduled from December 8th to 12th. The panel, titled “BC Starts Cutting Interest Rates, But When and How Much? The Role of Inflation and Fiscal Policy,” will feature insights from Caio Megale, Chief Economist at XP, and Rafaela Vitória, Chief Economist at Inter. They will delve into the delicate balance between fiscal and monetary policy, aiming to provide investors with the clarity needed to start the year well-informed.
Fiscal Health vs. Monetary Easing
The discussion will scrutinize the signals emanating from the government, the prevailing inflation trends, the trajectory of public debt, and the potential impact of the upcoming elections on economic policy. These factors are expected to significantly influence, or potentially limit, the scope for interest rate cuts.
The debate is poised to pit differing viewpoints against each other regarding the actual weight of fiscal policy on the Selic’s dynamics and what unexpected developments might surprise the market in 2026. Understanding this interplay is vital for any investor.
“Onde Investir 2026” Event Overview
This insightful panel is part of the broader “Onde Investir 2026” event, a week-long series of discussions featuring prominent market figures. The event aims to guide participants on how to allocate investments in an increasingly volatile and politically sensitive environment.
The agenda promises a comprehensive look at interest rates in Brazil and abroad, opportunities in the stock market even after reaching record highs, currency movements, and global assets amidst the rising value of gold. Additionally, there will be discussions on agriculture, passive income, real estate funds, and financial education for those focused on wealth accumulation.
Event Details
The “Onde Investir 2026” event runs from December 8th to 12th, commencing daily at 6:30 PM. Registration is free and includes special bonuses such as investment spreadsheets, a financial planner, and the “XP Onde Investir 2026” report. This information was disclosed by InfoMoney.
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