The 2025 Black Friday is unfolding against a backdrop of critical transformation within the Brazilian retail sector. A comprehensive study conducted by the Brazilian Institute of Executives in Retail and Consumer Markets (Ibevar), in collaboration with FIA Business School, indicates that the traditional surge of interest in promotional dates has reached a turning point.
This research highlights a substantial retraction in consumer engagement, a trend that has been developing over the past few years. The findings suggest that the once-unwavering enthusiasm for Black Friday deals is giving way to a more cautious and discerning consumer base.
According to the study, this shift is deeply rooted in the current economic climate affecting families, leading to a re-evaluation of spending priorities. The data offers a clear picture of changing consumer behavior, as detailed by Ibevar and FIA Business School.
Black Friday’s Declining Appeal: A Decade-Long Trend
The Ibevar study, which traces the history of Black Friday in Brazil since its inception in 2010, reveals a significant dip in consumer interest. After a decade of robust growth, peaking in 2019, the event has seen a continuous decline. In 2025, the general interest index stands at 394 points, marking a stark 48.4% reduction from the 764 points recorded in 2019.
Even when compared to the previous year, the decrease is notable, with a 9.13% drop from 2024’s figures. This sustained downturn signals a fundamental change in how consumers approach promotional sales events.
Economic Headwinds Drive Consumer Caution
Claudio Felisoni, president of Ibevar and professor at FIA Business School, attributes this decline to several interconnected economic factors. He points to the growing indebtedness of families, a decrease in job creation, and the persistent impact of rising interest rates.
Furthermore, Felisoni highlights a growing consumer perception that many advertised discounts are not genuine, leading to increased skepticism. These macroeconomic pressures are collectively contributing to a cooling of enthusiasm for promotional shopping events.
The data underscores the severity of these economic challenges, with family income commitment to debt reaching 48.91%. The reduction in job creation compared to 2024 and the restrictive nature of high interest rates on access to credit further limit discretionary spending.
Selective Purchasing and Shifting Category Performance
A long-term analysis, spanning from 2012 to 2025, indicates that the retail landscape is now characterized by a significantly more selective consumer. For nearly 70% of the products analyzed (67.5%), there has been a decrease or stagnation in purchasing intent during this period.
In the short term, comparing 2024 with 2025, several categories of durable and semi-durable goods have shown a reduced intention to buy. This includes traditional Black Friday items such as microwaves, washing machines, sneakers, video games, and air fryers.
Despite the overall decline in general interest, the research notes a subtle nuance: Black Friday 2025 might see a slight improvement in sales volume for specific items compared to 2024. However, this potential uptick occurs within the context of a broader downward trend in consumer engagement.
The Future of Retail: Beyond Discounts
The overarching sentiment is that consumers participating in Black Friday 2025 are acting with greater caution, selectivity, and rationality, according to Ibevar. The study suggests that the traditional Black Friday consumption cycle has reached maturity.
Commercial strategies that rely solely on aggressive discounts are losing their effectiveness. This is especially true for consumers who are heavily indebted and increasingly skeptical of promotional offers. Moving forward, the retail sector will need to focus on adding value, building trust, and enhancing convenience to navigate this evolving consumer landscape and counteract the current economic slowdown.
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